Sunday, May 20, 2012

Compilation of companies which had underperformed the STI since 3 May


Below is my compilation of companies which had under performed the STI since 3 May. Data was sourced from Bloomberg on 17 May. My criteria in compiling the list is also listed below.

Some companies such as Olam and China Minzhong are all time oversold based on RSI (i.e. since listing). Several of them are also trading at their 52 week low.

Food for thought.

*This was sent to my clients on Thurs evening.


Short Name Last Price Est TP Chg from Est TP 52 wk high
($)
52 wk low
($)
Adj Mkt Cap
($)
FY12F PE
(x)
ROE (%) Hist P/BV (x) YTD Total Return  Beta Last Px chg vs 3 May
China Minzhong 0.59 1.22 109% 1.63 0.58 326 2.4 21.8 0.5 -28% 1.1 -31%
Olam Internation 1.76 2.56 46% 3.02 1.75 4,299 11.5 21.4 1.2 -17% 1.4 -23%
Sakari Res Ltd 1.59 2.47 56% 3.20 1.58 1,802 8.4 33.0 2.2 -11% 1.5 -22%
Wilmar Internati 3.95 4.78 21% 6.05 3.95 25,353 12.7 12.7 1.5 -20% 1.0 -20%
Neptune Orient 1.03 1.27 24% 1.90 0.98 2,650 NA -16.4 0.9 -9% 1.4 -20%
Midas Holdings 0.30 0.70 139% 0.71 0.29 359 10.8 6.4 0.6 -9% 1.6 -19%
Ying Li Internat 0.26 0.63 146% 0.42 0.20 552 6.3 10.4 1.0 0% 1.6 -16%
Yangzijiang Ship 1.01 1.44 44% 1.76 0.77 3,851 5.3 34.7 1.4 16% 1.6 -15%
Sound Global Ltd 0.47 0.78 68% 0.76 0.41 600 6.5 19.6 1.3 -5% 1.4 -14%
China Aviation 0.98 1.55 59% 1.34 0.83 703 6.4 17.0 1.3 1% 1.1 -14%
Gmg Global Ltd 0.12 0.15 19% 0.20 0.11 935 12.2 12.4 1.1 9% 1.1 -13%
Capitaland Ltd 2.60 3.34 29% 3.18 2.17 11,093 18.3 7.3 0.7 21% 1.2 -13%
Hong Leong Asia 1.61 1.91 19% 2.59 1.40 602 7.8 10.2 0.7 6% 1.4 -13%
Genting Hong Kon 0.32 0.47 48% 0.46 0.26 3,145 16.0 8.9 1.2 21% 1.6 -12%
Sembcorp Marine 4.52 5.91 31% 5.34 2.97 9,458 14.0 30.0 3.7 23% 1.5 -12%
Yanlord Land Gro 1.04 1.19 14% 1.50 0.69 2,027 10.1 10.6 0.7 9% 1.5 -11%
Indofood Agri Re 1.28 1.79 41% 2.09 1.14 1,834 8.2 12.5 1.0 1% 1.4 -11%
Ezion Holdings L 0.76 1.26 67% 1.03 0.37 643 6.3 24.2 1.4 15% 1.3 -11%
Noble Group Ltd 1.10 1.59 45% 2.12 1.06 7,066 8.7 10.1 1.2 -1% 1.7 -11%
Genting Singapor 1.56 1.89 21% 2.10 1.42 19,031 18.4 18.2 2.3 4% 1.2 -10%
Tiger Airways 0.64 0.73 14% 1.41 0.60 521 NA 23.2 2.0 0% 1.1 -10%
China Fishery 0.92 1.20 30% 1.78 0.84 941 5.6 14.3 0.9 5% 1.1 -10%
Swiber Holdings 0.56 0.79 43% 0.80 0.44 338 6.0 9.4 0.6 4% 1.6 -10%
Mandarin Orientl 1.43 1.81 26% 2.20 1.33 1,807 18.1 7.5 1.6 -2% 1.0 -9%
Ezra Holdings Lt 0.99 1.35 37% 1.63 0.75 968 11.2 5.6 0.8 18% 1.5 -9%
Golden Agri-Reso 0.67 0.89 33% 0.81 0.55 8,072 9.9 17.1 0.8 -5% 1.1 -9%
Osim Intl Ltd 1.18 1.72 46% 1.70 0.92 864 11.0 50.5 5.3 3% 1.4 -9%
Keppel Corp Ltd 10.11 13.02 29% 11.67 7.02 18,138 11.0 26.7 2.1 11% 1.3 -8%
Capitamalls Asia 1.38 1.83 33% 1.73 1.13 5,326 24.0 7.6 0.9 22% 1.1 -8%
Raffles Educatio 0.39 0.46 21% 0.66 0.38 337 16.7 7.5 0.6 -9% 1.2 -8%
Keppel Land Ltd 2.89 3.45 19% 4.11 2.17 4,309 11.8 28.6 0.8 38% 1.5 -8%
Nam Cheong Ltd 0.18 0.27 52% 0.28 0.11 337 7.1 20.8 1.7 37% 1.2 -8%
Fraser And Neave 6.60 7.43 13% 7.17 5.30 9,405 14.4 13.4 1.3 9% 1.0 -7%
Uol Group Ltd 4.31 5.14 19% 5.14 3.76 3,312 8.9 13.7 0.7 11% 1.0 -7%
United Overseas 17.98 19.83 10% 21.00 14.42 28,321 11.6 11.1 1.3 20% 1.0 -7%
Pac Andes Resour 0.15 0.20 31% 0.28 0.15 723 5.7 8.4 0.4 -8% 1.1 -7%
Singapore Exch 6.26 6.95 11% 7.72 5.91 6,686 21.6 36.0 8.7 3% 1.1 -7%
Hongkong Land 5.80 6.18 7% 7.51 4.17 17,184 20.6 24.0 0.5 30% 1.1 -6%
Jardine Cycle & 44.75 48.50 8% 51.79 35.72 15,939 11.0 25.3 2.7 -4% 1.2 -6%


Source: Bloomberg (17 May 12).

Criteria
1. Market cap > S$300m
2. Stocks should have existing analyst coverage
3. Analyst target price > last price
4. Beta >=1.0
5. Stock's decline >= STI's 5.6% decline since 3 May 12

Disclaimer
The information contained herein is the writer's personal opinion and is provided to you for information only and is not intended to or nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute an investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or invest in the investment product(s) mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to do so, you should consider whether the investment product(s) mentioned herein are suitable for you. The writer will not, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials appended herein. The information and/or materials are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding accuracy or fitness for a purpose is given in connection with such information and materials.



Saturday, May 19, 2012

Some stocks to watch out as market falls


STI dropped 107 points for the week of 7-11 May. It sank another 104 points or 3.5% to 2,779 last week. All in, it had slumped 211 points for the past fortnight. Since 3 May, HSI and STI had tumbled 2,298 points (12.1%) and 222 points (8.0%) respectively. If we compare the intraday high of 3 May vs the intraday low of 18 May, the decline for HSI and STI would have been a steeper 2,635 points (14.1%) and 251 points (9.1%) respectively.

Despite the market drop, some interesting stocks to take note based on my personal observation and technical analysis are as follows:

1.      China Animal Healthcare Ltd (“CAL”)

Notwithstanding the 7.4% drop in STI since 3 May, CAL has notched an impressive gain of 9.3% over the same period (See Table 1). On last Friday, when STI gapped down 39 points (1.4%), CAL actually gapped up $0.005 (2.1%) to $0.240 and even went to a high of $0.245 before closing unchanged at $0.235. 9.2m shares changed hands which was approximately a 3 month high volume. It is noteworthy that 7.9m shares (i.e. 86% of the transactions) were done at $0.240; 1.2m shares were executed at $0.245 with the balance 71,000 shares executed at $0.235.

Table 1: Comparison of CAL vs STI price performance since 3 May

Indices
3 May close
18 May close
chg
% chg
China Animal
0.215
0.235
+0.020
+9.3%
STI
3,001
2,779
-222
-7.4%
Source: Ernest’s compilations

Based on Chart 1 below, CAL seems to be in the midst of forming a bottom pattern. In addition, the recent move above most of the moving averages with volume seems to bode well for the stock. Key resistances are at $0.245 – 0.250 and $0.260. A cluster of supports is at $0.225 – 0.235.  Ave analyst target price is around $0.320.

Chart 1: CAL’s price chart


Source: Metastock

2.      Olam International Limited

Olam has significantly underperformed the STI by tumbling $0.57 or 25% since 3 May. This was mainly attributable to its weak results announced on 15 May which promptly caused the stock to gap down on 16 May. Having dropped 25% since 3 May, Olam’s RSI was 10.4 on Friday, an all time low, since its listing in 2005. Money Flow Index (“MFI”)[1] was also at an all time low of 5.7. Thus, it is likely that Olam may see a near term bottom soon.

Supports are at 1.690-1.710 / 1.675 / 1.655 / 1.60. However, given the all time low readings of RSI and MFI, it is technically unlikely to fall below 1.675 in the near term. Ave analyst target price is around $2.56.

Chart 2: Olam’s price chart


Source: Metastock

3.      Wilmar International Limited

Like Olam, Wilmar has also underperformed the STI by sinking $1.17 or 24% since 3 May. The main contributing factor was its lackluster results announced on 10 May morning which caused the stock to gap down on the same day. Wilmar’s RSI was at 13.2 last Friday (Its RSI was actually lower than that as the share price dipped to an intraday low of $3.71 last Friday.). The RSI of 13.2 was a 2 year low reading since 20 May 2010. All time low RSI was 10.9 in Oct 2000. Suffice to say that Wilmar has seldom dipped below 13.2 since its listing in 2000. MFI was at 8.2 vs the all time low of 0. Although both RSI and MFI are not at an all time low, they are at sufficiently low levels for traders to take note of. However, traders would have to take note that Wilmar’s beta is around 1 which indicates that it may not significantly rebound more than the STI if STI rebounds.

Supports are at 3.71 / 3.68 / 3.60. Resistances at 3.87 / 4.02 / 4.20. Ave analyst target price is around $4.78.



Chart 3: Wilmar’s price chart


Source: Metastock

Please note that the above is my personal observation cum opinion and may not cater to your specific risk profile etc. It is extremely important to bear in mind that the market outlook OR / & technical outlook on stocks are never static. It can change suddenly if there are sudden big events unfolding from the market – some events can happen as quickly as overnight.


Disclaimer
The information contained herein is the writer's personal opinion and is provided to you for information only and is not intended to or nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute an investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or invest in the investment product(s) mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to do so, you should consider whether the investment product(s) mentioned herein are suitable for you. The writer will not, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials appended herein. The information and/or materials are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding accuracy or fitness for a purpose is given in connection with such information and materials.



[1] MFI measures the money flowing in and out of a security. MFI is range bound between 100 and 0. Generally, market tops occur when MFI > 80 and market bottom when MFI < 20. 

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

U.S corporate results calendar 16 May - 31 May 2012

Dear all,

For readers who trade the U.S. markets, here is my personal compiliation of the U.S. listed companies' earnings announcement date, sorted by date and company name for the period 16 - 31 May 12. Source is from Bloomberg, correct as on 16 May 12 This should be useful as part of your consideration in your trading plan.


Company Name
Date
*Confirm / Estimated
Time
Period
Estimate
Abercrombie & Fitch Co
16-May-12
C
19:00
Q1 2013
0.014
Cost Plus Inc
16-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q1 2013
-0.038
Deere & Co
16-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q2 2012
2.531
Digital Domain Media Group Inc
16-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q1 2012
-0.41
GT Advanced Technologies Inc
16-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q4 2012
0.695
JC Penney Co Inc
16-May-12
C
4:02
Q1 2013
-0.081
KIT Digital Inc
16-May-12
C
4:31
Q1 2012
-0.33
Liquidmetal Technologies Inc
16-May-12
C
4:15
Q1 2012

Staples Inc
16-May-12
C
18:00
Q1 2013
0.3
Target Corp
16-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q1 2013
1.009
Tumi Holdings Inc
16-May-12
C
4:05
Q1 2012
0.11
Advance Auto Parts Inc
17-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q1 2012
1.811
Applied Materials Inc
17-May-12
C

Q2 2012
0.24
Aruba Networks Inc
17-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q3 2012
0.161
Autodesk Inc
17-May-12
C

Q1 2013
0.473
Bon-Ton Stores Inc/The
17-May-12
C

Q1 2013
-1.37
Dollar Tree Inc
17-May-12
C

Q1 2013
0.973
GameStop Corp
17-May-12
C

Q1 2013
0.537
Intuit Inc
17-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q3 2012
2.479
Ltd Brands Inc
17-May-12
C
4:30
Q1 2013
0.403
Prestige Brands Holdings Inc
17-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q4 2012
0.23
Quality Systems Inc
17-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q4 2012
0.284
Ross Stores Inc
17-May-12
C
20:30
Q1 2013
0.927
Salesforce.com Inc
17-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q1 2013
0.343
Sears Holdings Corp
17-May-12
C

Q1 2013
-0.673
Wal-Mart Stores Inc
17-May-12
C
19:00
Q1 2013
1.042
Aeropostale Inc
18-May-12
C
4:15
Q1 2013
0.129
Foot Locker Inc
18-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q1 2013
0.739
Gap Inc/The
18-May-12
C
4:00
Q1 2013
0.442
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc
21-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q1 2013
0.088
Lowe's Cos Inc
21-May-12
C

Q1 2013
0.422
AutoZone Inc
22-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q3 2012
6.25
Best Buy Co Inc
22-May-12
C
19:30
Q1 2013
0.584
Collective Brands Inc
22-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q1 2013
0.437
Dell Inc
22-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q1 2013
0.461
Guess? Inc
22-May-12
C

Q1 2013
0.269
Medtronic Inc
22-May-12
C
19:15
Q4 2012
0.98
Ralph Lauren Corp
22-May-12
C
20:00
Q4 2012
0.86
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc
22-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q4 2012
-0.535
Urban Outfitters Inc
22-May-12
C
4:00
Q1 2013
0.203
Williams-Sonoma Inc
22-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q1 2013
0.316
American Eagle Outfitters Inc
23-May-12
C

Q1 2013
0.193
Big Lots Inc
23-May-12
C

Q1 2013
0.697
Chimera Investment Corp
23-May-12
E

Q4 2011
0.098
Diamond Foods Inc
23-May-12
E

Q1 2012
0.71
Hewlett-Packard Co
23-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q2 2012
0.913
NetApp Inc
23-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q4 2012
0.629
Pandora Media Inc
23-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q1 2013
-0.175
PVH Corp
23-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q1 2013
1.261
Toll Brothers Inc
23-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q2 2012
0.015
Costco Wholesale Corp
24-May-12
C

Q3 2012
0.869
HJ Heinz Co
24-May-12
C

Q4 2012
0.788
Tiffany & Co
24-May-12
C

Q1 2013
0.698
VeriFone Systems Inc
24-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q2 2012
0.61
Ascena Retail Group Inc
25-May-12
E

Q3 2012
0.364
Tronox Inc
30-May-12
E

Q1 2012

Ciena Corp
31-May-12
C
Bef-mkt
Q2 2012
-0.032
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp
31-May-12
E

Q4 2012
0.209
OmniVision Technologies Inc
31-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q4 2012
0.218
Vera Bradley Inc
31-May-12
C
Aft-mkt
Q1 2013
0.289
Source: Bloomberg (16 May 12)
Disclaimer
The information contained herein is the writer's personal opinion and is provided to you for information only and is not intended to or nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute an investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or invest in the investment product(s) mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to do so, you should consider whether the investment product(s) mentioned herein are suitable for you. The writer will not, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials appended herein. The information and/or materials are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied.  In particular, no warranty regarding accuracy or fitness for a purpose is given in connection with such information and materials.