Tuesday, January 31, 2012

MCT - doomed to stay below IPO price?

Mapletree Commercial Writeup                                                                                                       30 Jan 12

Mapletree Commercial Trust’s (“MCT”) debut on Singapore Stock Exchange on 27 Apr 2011 with an IPO price of $0.880. Prior to its listing, some market watchers are expecting that it should do relatively well in terms of its share price performance. This is because Mapletree Industrial Trust launched its IPO half a year earlier and received a sterling debut (for a trust). Its first day and first week gain amounted to 22.7% and 16.7% respectively. Unfortunately, MCT did not perform as well. It closed unchanged on its first day and closed -1.1% lower for its first week. Since its listing, it only closed about six trading days above its IPO price.

What has happened to MCT? As of 30 Jan, it closed at $0.865. Is it doomed to stay below its IPO price of $0.880?

Description of MCT

With reference to Table 1 below, it has three properties under its portfolio, viz. Vivo City; Bank of America Merrill Lynch Harbourfront (“MLHF”) & PSA Building. As of 30 Nov 11, the properties are valued at S$2.94b.  

Table 1: Snapshot of MCT’s properties

--> Pls refer to IPO prospectus as i am unable to paste it here. Alternatively, u can email me and i can send u a pdf copy of my writeup.

Source: IPO Prospectus (30 Nov 2010) MCT’s properties were valued at S$2.82b in its IPO Prospectus but they were revalued upwards to S$2.94b as of 30 Nov 11.

Some interesting notes on MCT

1.      Rental reversion in FY2011/2012 to contribute to strong results

According to its latest 2QFY2011/2012 results, 57 out of the 62 leases expiring by Mar 2012 have been renewed. 40 retail leases have been renewed with an upwards rental increase of 20%. 17 office leases have been renewed with an upwards rental increase of 8%. These rental reversions are likely to contribute to FY2012/2013 results. (MCT’s year end is in Mar.) In addition, MLHF is also likely to see rental uplift when it is up for renewal in Dec 11.

2.      Upwards rental reversion likely to continue in FY2012/2013

Trend of upwards rental reversion remains in FY2012/2013. Firstly, Vivocity’s passing rental of around S$10 / psf is significantly lower than its peers who are around S$11-14, thus there is likely to be room for rental reversions in FY2012 / 2013 as 223 leases are up for renewal with the bulk of it in retail sector. Secondly, Vivocity is connected directly to two MRT lines, namely the Circle Line Extension and North East Line. With the recent opening of Circle Line Extension, LTA expects ridership on the Circle Line to increase from 180,000 to 400,000 daily. This bodes well for Vivocity retail sales as more footfall is likely lead to more sales.

3.      Alexandra retail centre (“ARC”) opened 6 months ahead of schedule

ARC was progressively opened on 15 Dec, 6 months ahead of schedule. More shops would be opened in January. With the opening of ARC, this should boost its distribution per unit (“DPU”) in FY2012/2013. There should be more update on ARC post their 3QFY2011/2012 results on 31 Jan.

4.      High average occupancy rate of 98.1%, up 1% q-o-q

MCT’s portfolio of assets improved 1% on a quarter on quarter basis to 98.1% in 2QFY2011/2012. This bodes well for MCT’s performance.

5.      0% of debts expiring on or before Mar 2013

MCT does not have any refinancing requirements before Mar 2013. Its average term to maturity for debt amounts to 2.9 years and all in interest cost of debt is low at 1.95%.

6.      Strong sponsor

The Sponsor Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd (“MIPL”) has a pipeline of assets such as Mapletree Business City (“MBC”); Mapletree Lighthouse; The Comtech etc and has given MCT the right of first refusal on such properties. MIPL is indirectly wholly owned by Temasek.

One noteworthy point though…

1.      Possible cash call in future

MCT’s current gearing is 38.5%. Management has indicated its intention to acquire the MBC in future. According to Mapletree Investment’s balance sheet, MBC is valued at S$1.0b. Given MCT’s existing gearing of 38.5%, it is likely that MCT may go for a cash call. However, management informed that they will not acquire MBC before April.

2.      DPU may not increase consistently

According to the prospectus, MCT’s policy is to distribute 100% of its Taxable Income FY2012/2013 and at least 90% of its Taxable Income thereafter. In other words, a portion of the Taxable Income in FY2013/2014 (and thereafter) may be retained and not distributed to unit holders. Therefore, although there is likely to be a boost in its gross revenue / net property income in FY2013/2014, the boost in its DPU may not increase to the same extent.


Conclusion: Likely to be re-rated if it continues to deliver

With reference to Table 2 below, MCT trades at 0.9x estimated price to book and 6.1% dividend yield. Its aforementioned initiatives (such as uplift in rentals from its properties; opening of ARC etc.) are likely to provide a boost in FY2012/FY2013 results and subsequently to its DPU. Re-rating is likely if it continues to deliver on its results.

Table 2: MCT vis-à-vis its peers

Short NameCurLast PxAnalyst TPChange in TP1 Yr high1 Yr lowAdj Mkt Cap (S$m)FY12F P/BVROE (%)Fwd Div Yield (%)
MCTSGD0.871.0016%0.910.791,612.50.9NA6.1
Capitamall TrustSGD1.701.9515%2.021.625,641.71.17.55.9
Frasers CentrepoSGD1.461.6614%1.581.371,196.81.014.26.4
Starhill GlobalSGD0.600.7220%0.670.551,156.10.68.87.1
           
Average ex MCT     0.910.26.5

Source: Bloomberg as of 27 Jan 12

Disclaimer
The information contained herein is the writer's personal opinion and is provided to you for information only and is not intended to or nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute an investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or invest in the investment product(s) mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to do so, you should consider whether the investment product(s) mentioned herein are suitable for you. The writer will not, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials appended herein. The information and/or materials are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied.  In particular, no warranty regarding accuracy or fitness for a purpose is given in connection with such information and materials.

Saturday, January 28, 2012

What lies ahead for this week? Bull or Bear?

Last week, Asian stocks posted their sixth weekly gain, the longest winning streak since 2010 amid a dovish Federal Reserve and optimism that Greece would successfully negotiate a deal with the private creditors.

STI has surged 10.2% or 270 points year to date (STI closed at 2,646 on 30 Dec). On the charts, it is likely that STI may go higher early this week and challenge the gap 2,943 – 2,974 (formed on 5-8 Aug 2011) due to two possible factors viz.

a) Greek debt talks crystallised and an agreement is formed; or / and

b) China eases its monetary policy by lowering its required reserve ratio or enacts other measures.

However, once the initial euphoria over the above measures cools off, we may have to contend with what the credit rating agencies have to say on the Greek debt talks and whether this constitutes a default. Secondly, there is a multitude of economic reports this week, especially on the U.S. market. Recent better than expected economic data have pushed the “bar” higher for subsequent economic data and odds are pointing that going forward, the U.S. economic data may not surprise on the upside. Personally, I believe that markets may have got ahead of themselves and STI is likely to be lower in 1Q / 2Q, in view of (but not limited to) the challenges below:

a) Avalanche of Euro debt refinancing in first 4 months of the year. Although yields have fallen sharply in the recent debt auctions, it is noteworthy that the yield comparisons are done against a high base. Once the base normalises, the “better than expected” sentiment is likely to fizzle out. Secondly, it is still questionable whether the drop (albeit smaller in extent compared to short term bond yields) in bond yields on the longer dated debt > 3 years (ECB only provides max 3 year loans) are sustainable. This is because for long term debt, investors prefer nations that strike a balance between austerity measures and pro-growth policies. Thirdly, debt yields which have fallen recently are still high relative to historical standards and this would still exert a drag on the countries’ finances.

b) Singapore GDP probably bottoms in late 1Q or 2Q. Usually, equities markets bottom around the same period or slightly ahead of the bottom in GDP.

c) U.S. economic reports may be weaker going into Feb onwards. It is noteworthy that some of these recent stronger than expected economic data are due in part to special one off factors. For example, business spending has been greater than expected, primarily because a tax incentive for capital spending that expired in Dec 2011.

d) The 17 nation eurozone is almost certainly in a recession. On 24 Jan, IMF reduced its 2012 forecast of the 17 nation eurozone from 1.1% (which it forecast four months ago) to -0.5%. As the eurozone accounts for 20% of global output, this is likely to provide a drag on other economies such as Singapore, China, Taiwan etc. Coupled with the potential slowdown in U.S in 1H, this does not bode well for the equity markets in 1H.

e) Less upside guidance from companies as most companies are likely to be affected by the European debt problems; slowdown and tight lending conditions in China and slowdown in U.S. to various extents. According to Reuters, without Apple, this quarter has been a fairly lacklustre earnings season. Since the start of results season to 25 Jan, 57% of companies that reported results have exceeded estimates, which was less than the average beat rate of 70%. Going forward, 1Q2012 results to be reported in Apr / May may not be that inspiring to bulls.

If the above is true, that we should sell in this recent rally unless u are less than 20-30% invested in the market. We should conserve at least 50% of your investable cash to buy into blue chip counters on sharp drops. Typically, blue chip stocks move first (and more) than small caps in the event of a rebound.

Lastly, it is extremely important to note that the above is my personal opinion and may not cater to your specific risk profile etc. The question of when to buy / sell and what to buy / sell differs greatly from individual to individual. Furthermore, it is extremely important to bear in mind that the market outlook is never static. It can change suddenly if there are sudden big events unfolding from the market – some events can happen as quickly as overnight.

STI supports and resistances based on the close on 27 Jan are:

Current: 2,916.26

Support 1: 2,905

Support 2: 2,877

Support 3: 2,855

Support 4: 2,839

Resistance 1: 2,935

Resistance 2: 2,943

Resistance 3: 2,974

Resistance 4: 2,997

*Supports and resistances are not static levels. They may be subject to change daily.

Hereby wishing you and your families a GREAT DRAGON YEAR AHEAD! Let’s Huat AHEAD!

Disclaimer
The information contained herein is the writer's personal opinion and is provided to you for information only and is not intended to or nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute an investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or invest in the investment product(s) mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to do so, you should consider whether the investment product(s) mentioned herein are suitable for you. The writer will not, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials appended herein. The information and/or materials are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied.  In particular, no warranty regarding accuracy or fitness for a purpose is given in connection with such information and materials.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Review on previous post on stocks trading at 1-7x Next Year PE

With ref to my previous compilation of companies trading at less than 7x PE using Bloomberg data as of 28 Dec http://ernestlim15.blogspot.com/2011/12/companies-trading-at-2x-3x-4x-7x-next.html , I have attached the table below which incorporated their stock prices on 13 Jan (price as of around 4pm.) Notwithstanding the sharp 5.5% appreciation in the STI index since the start of the year, 64% of the stocks compiled in the table have outperformed the index.

NameAdj Mkt Cap
($)
Last Price
($)
Ave Analyst px
($)
Potential capital gainEst 12M Div Yield
(%)
52 wk high
($)
52 wk low
($)
Nx Year P/BV
(x)
Nx Year PE
(x)
13 Jan 12
Px
($)
Px chg
Eratat Lifestyle50.30.1060.330211%5.40.2700.0990.51.40.1071%
Yamada Green Res69.10.1700.32088%4.80.3650.155NA1.70.1806%
Kinergy Ltd12.80.100NANA10.00.1600.100NA1.70.1000%
Sinopipe Hlds38.30.1500.450200%NA0.3000.139NA1.70.1500%
Sunvic Chemical259.90.440NANA4.50.8600.435NA1.70.49011%
Hu An Cable Hlds92.20.1070.360236%7.20.3310.0870.41.80.14233%
Foreland Fabrict53.90.1020.16057%8.90.1700.0860.41.90.097-5%
Combine Will Int25.90.7902.250185%12.73.2850.6750.32.10.730-8%
Sino Grandness102.10.3850.56045%2.20.6100.3250.82.30.4055%
Ue E&C Ltd101.30.3750.65073%NA0.5100.305NA2.30.3801%
Ziwo Holdings Lt35.90.120NANA1.60.4350.1030.52.40.1200%
Wee Hur Hldgs174.30.270NANA7.40.3670.2351.42.50.2700%
China Minzhong476.60.8551.61789%NA1.9000.6650.62.50.9157%
Smartflex Holdin9.60.116NANA8.60.1800.1030.52.50.1160%
Iev Holdings Ltd85.10.4950.59019%NA0.5600.260NA2.60.445-10%
Sc Global Develo414.01.0001.42442%5.01.6730.9100.52.70.980-2%
Swing Media Tech37.50.1050.230119%2.40.2500.095NA2.70.1072%
Lian Beng Group180.10.3400.61380%4.70.4120.2700.82.80.3503%
China Environmen70.30.1100.370236%NA0.2550.0820.72.80.1155%
Sunpower Group65.10.1980.180-9%1.50.5700.1950.62.80.189-5%
Valuetronics75.20.2100.29540%10.30.3100.190NA2.90.2152%
Hoe Leong Corp47.70.1650.375127%3.00.3300.131NA2.90.19015%
Leader Env Tech52.60.1070.300180%3.30.3250.099NA2.90.1114%
Rickmers Maritim122.90.2900.33014%10.40.4250.2850.22.90.32010%
Ksh Holdings Ltd71.00.2050.30549%9.80.2900.2000.53.00.2207%
Bbr Holdings64.50.2100.38081%2.90.3050.2000.63.00.2100%
Cheung Woh Tech55.30.1800.31072%7.20.3350.1550.63.10.1853%
Allied Tech Ltd18.20.0300.070133%10.00.0750.030NA3.30.03310%
Conscience Food78.10.1970.28545%3.50.3350.1691.03.50.22514%
Xinren Aluminum312.40.2850.650128%NA0.5800.2650.83.50.2902%
Tee Intl Ltd85.60.2400.39565%9.40.3130.225NA3.60.2452%
Delong Holdings137.50.250NANANA0.5900.2150.23.70.28514%
Willas-Array Ele38.00.102NANA15.80.1800.100NA3.80.11513%
Jaya Hldgs Ltd354.30.4600.90096%NA0.7550.4200.63.80.4600%
World Precision172.00.4300.52021%5.30.7250.4200.93.80.4505%
Guocoland Ltd2,053.01.7353.19584%4.62.9101.535NA3.91.8054%
Kian Ann Enginee81.50.1860.30564%5.90.2300.1700.53.90.1934%
Action Asia Ltd56.00.140NANA10.00.2150.110NA3.90.1400%
Isdn Holdings40.70.1350.22063%3.80.2050.113NA4.00.114-16%
Jes Internationa180.70.1550.20029%NA0.3850.1450.54.00.1646%
Ecs Holdings Ltd168.10.4600.71054%7.80.9700.4200.64.00.435-5%
Kreuz Holdings159.70.3150.44541%NA0.4750.2751.14.00.3408%
Chasen Holdings57.50.2450.570133%2.40.5700.1850.94.10.235-4%
Megachem Ltd26.40.198NANA5.10.2350.1560.64.10.1980%
Amtek Engineer321.00.5900.79435%9.31.4100.4851.44.10.65511%
Pac Andes Resour616.40.1930.22717%7.20.3950.1920.44.20.2056%
Trek 2000 Intl80.30.2700.45067%3.70.4700.270NA4.20.30513%
Fuxing China Grp46.30.0530.115117%11.00.2050.053NA4.20.048-9%
Mfg Integration13.50.061NANA4.10.1450.060NA4.40.0633%
Roxy-Pacific245.10.3850.4106%3.90.5200.3701.04.40.3953%
Wing Tai Hldgs766.10.9651.43349%7.31.7330.9150.44.41.0155%
Lippo Malls750.30.3450.53054%10.90.5190.325NA4.40.3707%
China Farm Equip47.40.1960.28043%NA0.2950.188NA4.60.1960%
China Fishery920.00.9001.33448%5.62.3600.8350.84.60.9657%
Unified Communic10.20.032NANA3.10.0500.0280.34.60.0320%
Interra Resource28.10.095NANANA0.1800.0880.44.60.15058%
Yongnam Hldgs288.40.2300.39270%2.80.3150.2151.04.60.2352%
Sapphire Corp Lt104.60.1290.600365%7.80.4000.1110.44.60.128-1%
Ums Holdings Ltd145.50.370NANA16.20.6300.2500.74.60.42515%
Ho Bee Investmen719.21.0101.25424%3.01.6700.9750.54.61.0050%
United Engineers537.11.8902.14013%5.32.7431.7000.44.71.9151%
Yhi Internationa163.70.2800.52086%6.00.3650.2550.74.70.275-2%
Ying Li Internat584.00.2700.33524%NA0.4500.2000.84.80.2907%
Mun Siong Engine42.50.1020.12018%9.80.2400.090NA4.90.11210%
Tiong Seng Hlds145.50.1900.28550%5.30.2800.1750.74.90.1921%
Yangzijiang Ship3,506.40.9151.32345%4.92.0900.7701.34.90.9858%
Japan Foods Hold30.00.260NANA2.40.4000.238NA4.90.255-2%
Broadway Indus124.80.3000.3155%6.70.5800.2900.64.90.260-13%
Karin Technology48.90.2350.28019%8.20.2500.2100.74.90.2402%
United O/S Aust556.10.575NANA4.50.7900.360NA5.00.470-18%
Ntegrator Inter6.20.015NANA13.30.0400.0150.45.00.0150%
China Sunsine117.70.2400.29021%4.20.3600.2200.75.10.2556%
Hotung Investmen127.80.122NANA16.50.1950.117NA5.20.1307%
Ch Offshore Ltd239.70.3400.51551%8.10.5150.3300.75.20.3606%
Ifs Capital Ltd46.60.3100.60094%4.80.5450.2950.35.30.40029%
Ezion Holdings L467.80.6550.92441%0.20.7600.3701.45.30.7159%
Serial System86.00.0950.16574%11.50.1680.0940.75.30.1005%
Hg Metal Manufac92.50.091NANANA0.1350.075NA5.40.10212%
China Aviation717.90.995NANA2.01.6100.8301.15.51.0657%
China New Town207.00.053NANA5.80.1450.0430.35.50.0530%
Asti Holdings28.60.0500.170240%18.00.1080.049NA5.60.05510%
Ezra Holdings Lt737.70.8501.19741%1.81.8600.7500.65.60.96013%
China Taisan103.10.092NANA4.70.2050.082NA5.60.0942%
Hiap Seng Engine94.20.3100.290-6%6.50.6850.2301.25.60.300-3%
Marco Polo Marin115.90.3400.48041%2.90.4710.3110.85.70.335-1%
Swiber Holdings269.40.5300.76043%NA1.0600.4400.55.70.5657%
Nam Lee Pressed61.20.270NANA5.70.3000.2200.65.90.250-7%
Mencast91.90.4900.71045%2.20.6450.360NA5.90.54010%
Elec & Eltek547.52.2503.83971%17.84.0002.1301.15.92.47010%
Adampak Ltd71.20.2700.31015%11.10.3800.2201.26.00.265-2%
Bukit Sembawang1,022.63.9504.1605%3.04.8143.1900.96.03.9500%
Asl Marine Hldgs215.20.5100.66831%2.90.7600.4150.66.10.495-3%
Gp Batteries115.41.050NANA3.81.7100.9600.46.21.020-3%
Okp Holdings Ltd160.30.5250.80052%9.50.6850.5151.96.20.5505%
Cse Global Ltd387.10.7500.98631%5.31.4300.6451.86.30.93525%
Qian Hu Corp Ltd37.70.0830.13057%6.00.7100.073NA6.40.09413%
China Merchants437.80.6101.02067%7.30.7600.4600.86.40.6507%
Yanlord Land Gro1,900.00.9751.0417%1.31.7500.6850.76.41.0558%
Advanced Hldgs40.40.130NANA4.20.2750.116NA6.50.1322%
Thakral Corp Ltd67.90.026NANA3.80.0350.023NA6.50.025-4%
Hong Leong Asia588.91.5751.97025%6.33.2201.4000.76.61.6354%
Nordic Group36.80.0920.15063%5.80.2200.085NA6.60.0931%
Kingsmen Creativ112.60.5800.79537%6.90.5950.5001.66.60.575-1%
Hi-P Intl Ltd525.60.6000.6234%6.01.2600.4900.96.60.6407%
Stx Osv Holdings1,386.51.1751.55132%6.81.5800.7901.96.61.31011%
Pec Ltd172.20.6750.91736%4.41.3640.6500.86.80.7054%
Epicentre Holdin42.50.4550.51012%11.00.6730.273NA6.80.450-1%
Sakari Res Ltd2,081.11.8352.69447%4.73.2001.7502.66.82.05012%
China Animal Hea358.10.2250.39073%1.80.3750.2101.66.90.2407%
Heatec Jietong13.30.110NANA6.80.3100.1000.56.90.1100%
Sound Global Ltd651.50.5050.88876%2.00.8500.4051.57.00.55510%
Technics Oil &187.40.8451.28552%14.21.0500.7953.17.00.8652%

Source: Bloomberg (28 Dec 11 & 13 Jan 12 Prices)

Disclaimer
The information contained herein is the writer's personal opinion and is provided to you for information only and is not intended to or nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute an investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or invest in the investment product(s) mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to do so, you should consider whether the investment product(s) mentioned herein are suitable for you. The writer will not, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials appended herein. The information and/or materials are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding accuracy or fitness for a purpose is given in connection with such information and materials.